Abortion is a defining issue
Donald Trump often brags to supporters that he has neutralized the abortion issue by insisting that the states are now in charge of policy, not the federal government. But he’s wrong, and he knows it.
Donald Trump often brags to supporters that he has neutralized the abortion issue by insisting that the states are now in charge of policy, not the federal government. But he’s wrong, and he knows it.
During a recent trip to Capitol Hill, Trump warned Republican legislators to talk “correctly” about abortion — or risk grave political damage. Don’t take extreme positions, he cautioned. Oppose a federal ban. Favor exceptions in cases of rape or incest or when a mother’s life is jeopardized.
“Whether Trump’s GOP likes it or not,” reports the Associated Press, “abortion will be a defining issue for many voters when they decide the presidency this fall.”
Last April, Trump openly admitted that crucial fact. He worried that GOP lawmakers pushing a federal ban were “doing a great disservice to the Republican Party, and to our country.” Democrats, he added, “love this issue, and they want to keep it going for as long as Republicans will allow them to do so.”
Democrats do love the issue — and for good reason: Joe Biden’s favorable rating is stuck at about 40%. Even many supporters think he’s too old and feeble to serve another term. Inflation continues to squeeze many family budgets.
With almost two-thirds of voters saying the country is headed in the “wrong direction,” Team Biden cannot plausibly contend that — to quote the old party anthem — “happy days are here again.” So, they have to argue that “dismal days will be here again” if Trump wins a second term.
In that gloomy context, abortion stands out as an issue — perhaps the best issue — where public opinion clearly favors the president and the Democrats. Moreover, it remains a powerful way — perhaps the best way — for Biden to make his central argument to discouraged and disaffected Democrats: Elections have consequences. You can’t afford to stay home or vote for a third party; the stakes are too high.
Trump is vulnerable on the abortion issue because he wants to have it both ways. While trying to sound reasonable, he also takes full credit for appointing three Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn a woman’s constitutional right to control her own body. His claim to being “the most pro-life president” in history is essential to securing the loyalty of conservative Christians, a critical part of his base.
But for every action in politics, there is a reaction. Democrats are using his “pro-life” positions to energize their own base. The court’s decision turned abortion rights from an abstract idea into a personal threat for many voters. And in a larger sense, it graphically symbolized another Trump vulnerability: his distinct disrespect for women in general.
“Abortion has emerged as Democrats’ most potent political weapon in the two years since Roe v. Wade was overturned,” writes Axios. New polling data from Gallup reinforces that conclusion: “A record-high 32% of U.S. voters say they would only vote for a candidate for major office who shares their views on abortion.”
The reversal of Roe was the key inflection point that shifted the dynamic of the abortion debate. As Gallup concludes: “The importance of a candidate’s abortion stance to one’s vote is markedly higher among pro-choice voters than it was during the 2020 presidential election cycle, while pro-life voters’ intensity about voting on the abortion issue has waned.”
Trump has only one principle when it comes to abortion, or any issue for that matter: He’ll say whatever helps him politically.
CNN has documented 15 different positions he’s taken since 1999, and his latest attempt to soften his hardline stance faces a series of challenges.
The first will come during next week’s debate, when Biden will surely highlight the issue and stress their differences. Then comes the Republican convention, where the party platform has long enshrined such extreme — and broadly unpopular — positions as a constitutional amendment conferring “personhood” on an unborn child. If Trump tries to water down the language, he could anger the pro-life leaders he’ll need in November.
Democrats have already run a lot of ads emphasizing the disastrous impact of Trump’s anti-abortion policies, and they will keep pushing that argument in the fall. One particularly powerful message tells the story of a Texas woman who almost died after being denied an abortion to end a troubled pregnancy.
The tagline reflects Biden’s core strategy: “Donald Trump did this.” Left unspoken, but clearly implied, was a second warning: And he will do it again, to you and to other women, if you give him the chance.
Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at stevecokie@gmail.com.