The gender and intensity gaps

Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the election continue to increase because she is improving her performance on two critical and related metrics — the gender gap and the intensity gap.

A key issue driving these trends is abortion, which is having two effects at the same time: It is energizing the Democratic base, especially younger women, and it is discouraging some of Donald Trump’s most ardent anti-abortion rights supporters, who fear he’s wobbling in order to woo moderate voters.

This collision has been building since the Dobbs case in June 2022, when the Supreme Court — with the support of three Trump-appointed justices — overturned the constitutional right to obtain an abortion.

Ever since Republicans flopped in the midterm elections five months later, reports The New York Times, “Mr. Trump has been privately emphatic with advisers that in his view the abortion issue alone could kill their chances of victory in November.” Anthony Scaramucci, briefly Trump’s communications director, told The Hill that on the abortion issue, “He’s in trouble. He knows it.”

In both of Trump’s national races, he received between 46% and 47%, and today, in an average of national polls compiled by the website Real Clear Politics, he attracts 46.3% of the vote. That means he has a high floor of devoted followers, but a low ceiling of possible support, and almost no room to expand his base.

Sure, there are a few genuinely uncommitted voters out there, but the real battle is about mobilization, not conversion. If your base is enthusiastic, then they are more likely to give money, volunteer time, talk to their friends and, most importantly, actually vote.

In 2020, about two-thirds of all eligible voters cast ballots, the highest turnout since 1900. But that means 1 of 3 did NOT vote. Who stays home — or votes for a third-party candidate — is just as important as who goes to the polls. And for a generation, Democrats have depended heavily on their ability to maximize the female vote.

In 1996, for example, Republican Bob Dole narrowly won the male vote, but Bill Clinton clobbered him by 16 points with women.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the women’s vote with 54% but lost to Trump; Joe Biden increased his share to 57% of women four years later and squeaked to victory.

In the latest ABC/Ipsos poll, Harris leads Trump by 4 points nationally, and since the Democratic convention, her advantage with women voters has grown from 6 to 13 points. When Biden was the party’s nominee, Trump enjoyed a large advantage on intensity, but that has now been reversed.

Nine of 10 Democrats view Harris favorably, but only 7 in 10 Republicans like Trump.

Abortion is critical to that shift. The Roe decision in 1973 that legalized abortion energized opponents of the ruling, but the Dobbs decision profoundly altered that dynamic. About 3 in 5 voters consistently tell pollsters they oppose Dobbs. However, Biden, an 81-year-old Roman Catholic man, was never comfortable promoting abortion rights and could not maximize its potential as a wedge issue.

Enter Harris, a 59-year-old woman who so revels in the issue that she’s planning a 50-stop bus tour focused on reproductive rights. Moreover, she has shrewdly expanded the abortion question in two ways: She has included a defense of IVF and other fertility treatments that are even more widely popular than abortion rights — but opposed by the staunchest anti-abortion rights factions. And she has cast abortion as a symbolic example of a larger battle for women’s rights and personal freedom.

The Times reports, “For women younger than 45, abortion has overtaken the economy as the single most important issue to their vote.” By 20 points, voters prefer Harris over Trump to handle the abortion issue — double the advantage Biden enjoyed.

This trend has driven Trump into conniptions and contortions. Recently, he implied that he would support a Florida referendum overturning a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy. When his anti-abortion rights supporters howled in protest, he reversed course again, but he continues to strain relations with religious conservatives by embracing IVF treatments and opposing a national ban on abortion.

It’s hard to imagine any True Trumpers voting for Harris — but that’s not the point. Trump has little ability to expand his base and has never tried to. His whole strategy depends on maximizing their fervor — and their turnout. So, if Harris can continue to expand the gender gap and the intensity gap, the odds swing clearly in her favor.