Take 5: Jones could have ripple effect on roster

Ben Cherington has been resolute in repeatedly saying the Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t have a formula to follow to prevent rookie right-handers Jared Jones and Paul Skenes from injury last season, other than to carefully monitor their pitch and innings counts and days of rest.

The Pirates general manager drew praise when Skenes was dominant in 23 starts to win NL rookie of the year honors and finish third in Cy Young voting and Jones started strong before being sidelined for two months with a lat strain.

Now, with the announcement that Jones is seeking a second opinion after experiencing right elbow discomfort following a recent bullpen session, the Pirates should be concerned. In a sign of its seriousness, manager Derek Shelton said Jones would miss his final start of spring training.

The injury risk for pitchers is high, especially when their fastball tops triple digits and their breaking pitches have high spin rates. In the baseball world, the mere mention of elbow discomfort or forearm soreness triggers thoughts of Tommy John surgery. When JT Brubaker missed his final spring training start in 2023 with soreness in his right elbow and forearm, it required surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament.

If Jones is out for an extended period, it could have a ripple effect on both the starting rotation and bullpen when it comes time for the Pirates to make final cuts. TribLive Pirates reporter Kevin Gorman takes a look at the positions where they will make important roster decisions.

1. FOR STARTERS: Upon signing veteran Andrew Heaney, the Pirates appeared set with a starting five of right-handers Skenes, Jones and Mitch Keller and lefties Bailey Falter and Heaney.

But they also stretched out relievers Caleb Ferguson and Carmen Mlodzinski, giving both a chance to start Grapefruit League games and pitch multiple innings.

A 2020 first-round pick, Mlodzinski converted to a relief role in 2023 but requested to return to his roots as a starter. The right-hander has pitched at least two innings in all four appearances this spring, with three innings in relief against Baltimore on March 15.

The left-handed Ferguson went two innings or more in his first four appearances but pitched a perfect frame in each of his last two, and has 14 strikeouts against four walks.

Top-100 prospect Thomas Harrington could be a wild card after an impressive start Tuesday against the Philadelphia Phillies, when the right-hander allowed only one hit — a solo home run by Nick Castellanos — in 3 2/3 innings.

With top prospect Bubba Chandler waiting in the wings, it’s possible the Pirates could employ a six-man rotation. They could use Ferguson and Mlodzinski as openers or pitch in tandem.

Whatever they decide to do, it could affect the bullpen.

2. LOOKING LEFT: The Pirates have critical choices to make among their relievers, depending on who steps into a starting role.

A lot could depend on what they do with their lefties.

The Pirates signed Ferguson ($3 million) and Tim Mayza ($1.15 million) to one-year contracts but could have to choose between Ryan Borucki and Joey Wentz.

Where Borucki is a non-roster invitee who was one of their most reliable relievers in 2023 before missing most of last season with inflammation issues, Wentz was a late-season waiver claim who is out of minor league options.

Borucki has been terrific this spring, with a 1.13 ERA and .143 batting average against in eight appearances, and could get the nod over Wentz ( 2.35 ERA, .281 BAA in seven appearances). Borucki also has experience as a starter and opener, not to mention a release clause he could trigger on Sunday.

The back end of the bullpen features returning right-handers David Bednar, Colin Holderman and Dennis Santana. That leaves the final spots coming down to Carson Fulmer, Justin Lawrence, Kyle Nicolas, Tanner Rainey, Burch Smith and Peter Strzelecki.

As non-roster invitees, Fulmer, Rainey and Smith are long shots. The Pirates like Nicolas, but he has two options remaining. Lawrence and Strzelecki are out of options, so there’s a risk of losing them if they don’t make the Opening Day roster.

3. ODD MAN OUT: With Tommy Pham in left, Oneil Cruz in center and Bryan Reynolds in right, the starting outfield is set.

Figuring out the fourth outfielder is more of a challenge.

Ji Hwan Bae has had one of the best springs of anyone, hitting .444 with a 1.168 OPS and using his speed to steal three bases and stretch singles into doubles.

Jack Suwinski isn’t far behind, batting .371/.425/.600 with five doubles, a homer and nine RBIs.

Joshua Palacios, who was sidelined by left knee soreness, has batted .211 in nine games. Billy Cook is batting .160. And, after a fast start that included five doubles, DJ Stewart has the second-most strikeouts (14) while drawing three walks.

Don’t put too much stock in spring training statistics.

The fourth outfielder won’t play every day, so it’s a matter of what they have to offer. Bae is more comfortable in center than the corner spots but has value because of his ability to bunt and as a pinch runner. Both Palacios and Suwinski can play all three spots, and have a history of late-game heroics with the Pirates.

Where Bae and Suwinski have minor league options, Palacios does not. The Pirates have to weigh whether they want to risk losing Palacios, who appears best-suited to the role.

4. BACK IT UP: The Pirates declared Joey Bart one of their catchers before the start of spring training because of his middle-ofthe- order bat, and he has backed it up by hitting three homers with nine RBIs and a 1.184 OPS.

Now that Jason Delay has been optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis, that leaves the battle for the backup catcher job down to Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez.

Where this was such a position of need last year that the Pirates signed veteran Yasmani Grandal, it is one where their depth has created difficult decisions.

The Pirates are invested in the development of both Davis, their No. 1 overall pick in 2021, and Rodriguez, their minor league player of the year in 2022. Even so, they are expected to send one to the minors to catch regularly, keeping the other as backup.

Rodriguez has a .360/.529/.640 slash line with two doubles, a triple, a homer, six RBIs and three times as many walks (nine) as strikeouts (three). Davis is batting .273/.314/.515 with two doubles, two homers (including a grand slam), five RBIs and two walks against eight strikeouts.

The right-handed hitting Davis offers a power bat who could serve as designated hitter on the days he isn’t catching. Although the Pirates appear inclined to keep him at catcher, the switch-hitting Rodriguez can play multiple positions — including one that could perhaps affect the position with the most glaring hole.

5. WHO’S ON FIRST?: The biggest question at the start of big league camp remains so a week ahead of Opening Day.

The Pirates did little to resolve their riddle at first base, which was complicated by Spencer Horwitz’s right wrist surgery.

Jared Triolo, the 2024 NL Gold Glove winner for utility players, is going to make the team and can play the position. But that limits his defensive versatility, which is his greatest value.

One option is to keep a rookie like Cook or Nick Yorke until Horwitz is ready to return, though the development of both would be better served by playing every day in the minors.

Another would be to use Rodriguez at first when he isn’t catching. That would give him regular at-bats, and he could provide a left-handed hitting complement to Triolo.

The Pirates also could go shopping. Two years ago, they added backup catcher Andrew Knapp and center fielder Jake Marisnick the day before the season opener.

They are familiar with one first baseman who could be available this weekend. Rowdy Tellez has an opt-out clause he can use if he isn’t going to make the Seattle Mariners’ Opening Day roster. You have to wonder whether Tellez would be open to returning to the Pirates after they designated him for assignment four plate appearances shy of triggering a $200,000 performance bonus.

Keeping Rodriguez as the backup catcher who can play first base is an intriguing option. The Pirates could inquire about trading for one, but their starting pitching depth doesn’t appear as deep at the moment.